Key Indicators

  • Inflation Forecast:
    • 2024: 8–9%.
    • 2025: 6.5–8.5%.
  • GDP Growth:
    • 2024: 4–4.5%.
    • 2025: 4.5–5.5%.
    • 2026: 4.6–5.6%.
    • 2027: 3.3–5.3%.

Factors Influencing Inflation

  1. Fiscal Stimulus: Increased government spending supports demand but adds inflationary pressure.
  2. Rising Utility Tariffs: Higher costs for utilities remain a significant driver of price increases.
  3. External Factors:
    • Potential increases in global food prices.
    • Inflation in Russia, impacting Kazakhstan through trade links.
  4. Inflation Expectations: Public and business anticipation of rising prices contributes to sustained inflationary trends.

Prospects for Slowing Inflation

  • By the end of 2024, inflation may slow due to more restrained increases in utility tariffs.
  • However, the "Tariff for Investment" program may drive inflation in the service sector, heightening risks in early 2025.

Economic Growth Outlook

  • 2024: GDP growth is projected at 4–4.5%.
  • 2025: Growth is expected to reach 4.5–5.5% due to improving internal and external demand.
  • Long-Term Projections: GDP growth is forecasted at 4.6–5.6% in 2026 but may slow to 3.3–5.3% by 2027.

Conclusion

While the National Bank foresees steady economic growth, inflation remains a critical challenge. External factors such as global food prices and inflation in Russia will be significant hurdles for Kazakhstan in the coming years.