Ruble devaluation risks increase in Russia due to declining oil revenues

The external environment for currency markets in Eurasia has deteriorated again. The Russian oil market is experiencing a sharp drop in the price of key crude grades, which increases the likelihood of a weaker ruble in the coming months. The Ministry of Finance of Russia reported a noticeable decrease in the export price of Russian oil due to sanctions imposed on major suppliers. This implies lower foreign currency inflows to the economy and additional pressure on the budget through a possible expansion of the deficit.

Analytical sources warn that this trend may turn into currency risks as early as January–February 2026. The situation resembles 2014, 2020 and 2022, when declining oil revenues led to accelerated ruble depreciation and increased market volatility.

Economists emphasize that the weakening of the Russian currency traditionally affects regional markets, especially in Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan is among the most sensitive economies to ruble dynamics, given trade ties, turnover, remittances and overall financial integration.

Observers note that the decline in Russian oil prices is related not only to global market conditions but also to sanctions restrictions affecting the export of products by energy sector companies. This raises questions about the sustainability of Russia’s budgetary parameters at the beginning of next year and creates preconditions for further weakening of the ruble if the trend continues.

For Kazakhstan, the main risk lies in potential pressure on the tenge through cross-border demand for foreign currency and through changes in import prices. Financial analysts admit that the Kazakh market may face a temporary increase in speculative activity and fluctuations in demand for the US dollar.

Experts believe that further developments depend on the dynamics of the global oil market, the effectiveness of alternative export routes and the volume of foreign currency earnings.